Showing posts with label economic forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic forecast. Show all posts

Sunday, April 24, 2011

The Pasadena Economic Symposium for Wealthy Investors

Experience an incredible eight hours in Pasadena, California exploring the latest in investment opportunities, insights into what may be the future of the financial markets and our country, strategies to potentially reduce taxes and increase cash flow, and much, much more. Over fourteen (14) speakers will cover topics such as... Click Here to Learn More

Monday, May 24, 2010

"In What Year Will The Economic Recovery Really Begin?

Confused About What To Do Next in Real Estate?
The "Great Recession" has left many of us scratching our heads and wondering what's next? Where do we go from here? How should we reposition our real estate portfolio going forward now that we are emerging from the recession? Should I hang tight, or make an investment move now?

We realize these are confusing times, which is why Exeter 1031 Exchange Services, LLC is hosting this webinar for you. Our goal is to provide you with up-to-date real estate market data and information so that you can make better informed investment decisions.

"In What Year Will The Economic Recovery Begin?"
This exciting webinar will provide an update on the real estate market on a local, state and national point of view as well as an overview of certain demographic trends that will affect investment property. It will help you answer the above questions, and help you decide how to position your own investment portfolio as we move forward beyond the recession.

Hosted by:
William L. Exeter
President and Chief Executive Officer
Exeter 1031 Exchange Services, LLC

Presented by:
Alan N. Nevin
Director of Economic Research
MarketPointe Realty Advisors

Date and Time
Tuesday, May 24, 2010
10:00 AM — 11:00 AM PDT Webinar
Please login five (5) minutes early

Go To Webinar Registrations Are Required
Click here to register for this webinar about demographic trends in California.

Saturday, May 01, 2010

"In What Year Will The Economic Recovery Begin?"

Has The Recovery Really Started?

The media is full of comments and opinions today about the global economic recession and/or the recovery.  When is the recovery coming?  Is the recovery here; I mean really here? 

These questions about the status of the economic recovery lead to many more questions about what each of us should or should not do in order to take full advantage of the economic recovery as it unfolds before our eyes.  How should we reposition ourselves for the job market, or our securities portfolio or our real estate portfolio?  What should we do differently, if anything, from what we have been doing?

How Will The Recovery Affect Us Individually?

The recovery will affect each and every one of us differently.  It will depend on what industry we are in, what jobs we have, what kind of investments we have made, and what kind of real property we own, etc.  The actions that each of us should take will vary depending on our individual circumstances.

Real Estate Hit Particularly Hard

Those of us in the real estate industry have been hit particularly hard.  So, the biggest question for each of us individually is really when and how will the recovery reach us and how will it ultimately affect us, especially those of us in the real estate world.

Alan NevinTo help us answer these questions on an individual basis, we desperately need current, reliable and accurate information to help us make better informed and educated investment decisions when trying to decide what we should do going forward.

Alan Nevin

So, we invited Alan Nevin, Director of Research with Marketpointe Realty Advisors, and co-founder of The Center for Wealth & Legacy™, to discuss these economic issues and questions with us on a Webinar entitled The Reality of the California Real Estate Market: In What Year Will The Economic Recovery Begin?"
Alan Nevin is an economist and a demographer who will address the various economic and real estate industry trends from a local (San Diego), state (California) and national (U.S.) perspective.  He will also share some comments regarding the global economy and how the U.S. fits into and/or will be affected by the bigger global economic picture.

Webinar Sponsor by Exeter 1031 Exchange Services, LLC

Exeter 1031 Exchange Services, LLC understands that investors need information in order to make tough investment decisions in difficult economic markets like today, so Exeter is pleased to host and sponsor this free webinar for real estate investors.  Click here to register for this free webinar.

Monday, January 11, 2010

San Diego Leading Economic Indicators Unchanged for November 2009

January 7, 2010 -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County was unchanged in November. Two of the components--consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy--were up sharply during the month, and there was also a small increase in help wanted advertising. On the downside, local stock prices took a big tumble during the month. Building permits and initial claims for unemployment were also negative, but there were only slight declines in those components.

November’s unchanged reading broke a string of seven consecutive increases for the USD Index. There is no change though in the previously reported outlook for 2010. The first few months of the year may be weak, with the local unemployment rate edging up to approach 11 percent. Things will improve in the second half of the year, with a net overall gain of between 3,000 to 5,000 jobs for the year.

An improving housing market will boost employment in construction, while research and development and health services will remain relatively strong. Rebounding local and national economies will stabilize employment in retailing and in the leisure and hospitality sector. However, job losses are expected to continue in manufacturing, which has lost jobs in 10 of the last 11 years.

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Economic Outlook from our Friends at Goldman Sachs & Co.

Recovery

Near-term inventory and stimulus-led growth should remain brisk, especially after last week’s data on trade, inventories, and retail sales. In the longer term, headwinds persist in the form of labor weakness, stagnant incomes, higher savings, state and local fiscal drag, housing supply, unused industrial capacity, and limited credit demand/availability.

Unemployment

The “jobless recovery” pattern established following the last two recessions provides a reasonable template for corporate hiring decisions over the next few years. We expect the unemployment rate to peak at approximately 10¾% in early 2011.

We have raised our 4Q09 GDP estimate to a 4.0% annual rate. As we look ahead into 2010, recovery is apt to be anemic at 2.1%, but reaccelerate in late 2011 as rising asset prices, improved credit availability, and better hiring facilitate a pickup in real GDP.

Inflation

Although highly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies have caused many to worry about inflation, we believe that the large gap between potential and actual output will tame prices for at least the next few years.

Fed Policy

We remain far from consensus in our view that the FOMC will maintain a 0-¼% federal funds range in 2010 and probably 2011. There are three key reasons for this view: 1) the state of labor, inflation, and fading stimulus suggests Fed policy still remains too tight…even at effectively 0%, 2) it is better to be late than early with policy tightening as it’s much easier to intercept inflation than to defeat deflation, and 3) the Fed’s exit strategy will likely start with a reduction in quantitative easing rather t easing, than a hike in the federal funds rate.

Research - Risks to Our View

We see two plausible risks to our forecast: 1) much stronger and sustained growth above 4.0% that would lower unemployment quickly, and 2) a big run-up in asset prices that could ignite a bubble response from the Federal Reserve.

Friday, December 18, 2009

Highlights from an Economic Luncheon

There are so many economic opinions circulating today that you have to wonder who to believe, who's right, and who's way, way off. I attended a luncheon this week hosted by the Strategic Trusted Advisors Roundtable, and the key note speaker was none other than Dr. Lynn Reaser.

Dr. Lynn Reaser

Dr. Lynn Reaser was formerly the chief economist of Bank of America's Investment Strategies Group, and she is currently the president of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) and has just joined the Fermanian Business Center with Point Loma Nazarene University.

Economic Comments

I made some notes from Dr. Lynn Reaser's comments and thought I would share them with you in bullet point format:
  • We definitely out of the recession - our GDP numbers have been up since June 2009.
  • Third Quarter GDP was up about 3%
  • Fourth Quarter GDP concensus is 4%
  • Recovery will absolutely continue
  • Inflation will be tame in 2010 - no signs to indicate otherwise
  • Employment is already improving with increase in number of hours worked, etc.
  • However, full employment will not be back until 2012 or 2013
  • We should experience an increase in new jobs during the first quarter 2009
  • Interest rates should begin to increase in late spring or early summer

Her Recommendations

  1. Refinance and lock in the historically low interest rates if you have not already done so.
  2. Buy real estate now if you have not already done so.
  3. Take care of your employees if you are an employer to make sure that you keep them later when jobs are more abundant.
  4. Integrity is king today. We have seen too many sleezy things, many of which led to this downturn.

So, there you have it. We have certainly seen many signs that lead me to believe Dr. Reaser. I hope these comments help you get a handle on what you might want to consider doing.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

The Reality of the California Real Estate Market: Siftings From the Tea Leaves of a Demographic Guru Webinar

Go To Webinar Registrations Are Required
Click here to register for this webinar on the California real estate market.

Confused About What To Do Next in Real Estate?
The "Great Recession" has left many of us scratching our heads and wondering what's next? Where do we go from here? How should we reposition our real estate portfolio going forward now that we are emerging from recession? Should I hang tight, or make an investment move now?

We realize these are confusing times, which is why Exeter 1031 Exchange Services, LLC is hosting this webinar for you. Our goal is to provide you with up-to-date real estate market data and information so that you can make better informed investment decisions.

"The Nation of California: An Almost Flat Line in 2009"
This exciting webinar will provide an update on the California real estate market and an overview of certain demographic trends that will affect investment property in the California real estate market. It will help you answer the above questions, and help you decide how to position your own investment portfolio as we move forward beyond the recession.

Hosted by:
William L. Exeter
President and Chief Executive Officer
Exeter 1031 Exchange Services, LLC


Presented by:
Alan N. Nevin
Director of Economic Research
MarketPointe Realty Advisors

Date and Time
December 1, 2009
8:55 AM PDT Login
9:00 AM — 10:00 AM PDT Webinar

Go To Webinar Registrations Are Required
Click here to register for this webinar about demographic trends in California.