The Pasadena Economic Symposium for Wealthy Investors

Experience an incredible eight hours in Pasadena, California exploring the latest in investment opportunities, insights into what may be the future of the financial markets and our country, strategies to potentially reduce taxes and increase cash flow, and much, much more. Over fourteen (14) speakers will cover topics such as... Click Here to Learn More

"In What Year Will The Economic Recovery Really Begin?

Confused About What To Do Next in Real Estate?
The "Great Recession" has left many of us scratching our heads and wondering what's next? Where do we go from here? How should we reposition our real estate portfolio going forward now that we are emerging from the recession? Should I hang tight, or make an investment move now?

We realize these are confusing times, which is why Exeter 1031 Exchange Services, LLC is hosting this webinar for you. Our goal is to provide you with up-to-date real estate market data and information so that you can make better informed investment decisions.

"In What Year Will The Economic Recovery Begin?"
This exciting webinar will provide an update on the real estate market on a local, state and national point of view as well as an overview of certain demographic trends that will affect investment property. It will help you answer the above questions, and help you decide how to position your own investment portfolio as we move forward beyond the recession.

Hosted by:

William L. Exeter

President and Chief Executive Officer

Exeter 1031 Exchange Services, LLC

Presented by:

Alan N. Nevin

Director of Economic Research

MarketPointe Realty Advisors

Date and Time

Tuesday, May 24, 2010

10:00 AM — 11:00 AM PDT Webinar

Please login five (5) minutes early

Go To Webinar Registrations Are Required
Click here to register for this webinar about demographic trends in California.

"In What Year Will The Economic Recovery Begin?"

Has The Recovery Really Started?

The media is full of comments and opinions today about the global economic recession and/or the recovery.  When is the recovery coming?  Is the recovery here; I mean really here? 

These questions about the status of the economic recovery lead to many more questions about what each of us should or should not do in order to take full advantage of the economic recovery as it unfolds before our eyes.  How should we reposition ourselves for the job market, or our securities portfolio or our real estate portfolio?  What should we do differently, if anything, from what we have been doing?

How Will The Recovery Affect Us Individually?

The recovery will affect each and every one of us differently.  It will depend on what industry we are in, what jobs we have, what kind of investments we have made, and what kind of real property we own, etc.  The actions that each of us should take will vary depending on our individual circumstances.

Real Estate Hit Particularly Hard

Those of us in the real estate industry have been hit particularly hard.  So, the biggest question for each of us individually is really when and how will the recovery reach us and how will it ultimately affect us, especially those of us in the real estate world.

Alan NevinTo help us answer these questions on an individual basis, we desperately need current, reliable and accurate information to help us make better informed and educated investment decisions when trying to decide what we should do going forward.

Alan Nevin

So, we invited Alan Nevin, Director of Research with Marketpointe Realty Advisors, and co-founder of The Center for Wealth & Legacy™, to discuss these economic issues and questions with us on a Webinar entitled The Reality of the California Real Estate Market: In What Year Will The Economic Recovery Begin?"
Alan Nevin is an economist and a demographer who will address the various economic and real estate industry trends from a local (San Diego), state (California) and national (U.S.) perspective.  He will also share some comments regarding the global economy and how the U.S. fits into and/or will be affected by the bigger global economic picture.

Webinar Sponsor by Exeter 1031 Exchange Services, LLC

Exeter 1031 Exchange Services, LLC understands that investors need information in order to make tough investment decisions in difficult economic markets like today, so Exeter is pleased to host and sponsor this free webinar for real estate investors.  Click here to register for this free webinar.

San Diego Leading Economic Indicators Unchanged for November 2009

January 7, 2010 -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County was unchanged in November. Two of the components--consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy--were up sharply during the month, and there was also a small increase in help wanted advertising. On the downside, local stock prices took a big tumble during the month. Building permits and initial claims for unemployment were also negative, but there were only slight declines in those components.

November’s unchanged reading broke a string of seven consecutive increases for the USD Index. There is no change though in the previously reported outlook for 2010. The first few months of the year may be weak, with the local unemployment rate edging up to approach 11 percent. Things will improve in the second half of the year, with a net overall gain of between 3,000 to 5,000 jobs for the year.

An improving housing market will boost employment in construction, while research and development and health services will remain relatively strong. Rebounding local and national economies will stabilize employment in retailing and in the leisure and hospitality sector. However, job losses are expected to continue in manufacturing, which has lost jobs in 10 of the last 11 years.

Economic Outlook from our Friends at Goldman Sachs & Co.

Recovery

Near-term inventory and stimulus-led growth should remain brisk, especially after last week’s data on trade, inventories, and retail sales. In the longer term, headwinds persist in the form of labor weakness, stagnant incomes, higher savings, state and local fiscal drag, housing supply, unused industrial capacity, and limited credit demand/availability.

Unemployment

The “jobless recovery” pattern established following the last two recessions provides a reasonable template for corporate hiring decisions over the next few years. We expect the unemployment rate to peak at approximately 10¾% in early 2011.

We have raised our 4Q09 GDP estimate to a 4.0% annual rate. As we look ahead into 2010, recovery is apt to be anemic at 2.1%, but reaccelerate in late 2011 as rising asset prices, improved credit availability, and better hiring facilitate a pickup in real GDP.

Inflation

Although highly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies have caused many to worry about inflation, we believe that the large gap between potential and actual output will tame prices for at least the next few years.

Fed Policy

We remain far from consensus in our view that the FOMC will maintain a 0-¼% federal funds range in 2010 and probably 2011. There are three key reasons for this view: 1) the state of labor, inflation, and fading stimulus suggests Fed policy still remains too tight…even at effectively 0%, 2) it is better to be late than early with policy tightening as it’s much easier to intercept inflation than to defeat deflation, and 3) the Fed’s exit strategy will likely start with a reduction in quantitative easing rather t easing, than a hike in the federal funds rate.

Research - Risks to Our View

We see two plausible risks to our forecast: 1) much stronger and sustained growth above 4.0% that would lower unemployment quickly, and 2) a big run-up in asset prices that could ignite a bubble response from the Federal Reserve.

Highlights from an Economic Luncheon

There are so many economic opinions circulating today that you have to wonder who to believe, who's right, and who's way, way off. I attended a luncheon this week hosted by the Strategic Trusted Advisors Roundtable, and the key note speaker was none other than Dr. Lynn Reaser.

Dr. Lynn Reaser

Dr. Lynn Reaser was formerly the chief economist of Bank of America's Investment Strategies Group, and she is currently the president of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) and has just joined the Fermanian Business Center with Point Loma Nazarene University.

Economic Comments

I made some notes from Dr. Lynn Reaser's comments and thought I would share them with you in bullet point format:

• We definitely out of the recession - our GDP numbers have been up since June 2009.
• Third Quarter GDP was up about 3%
• Fourth Quarter GDP concensus is 4%
• Recovery will absolutely continue
• Inflation will be tame in 2010 - no signs to indicate otherwise
• Employment is already improving with increase in number of hours worked, etc.
• However, full employment will not be back until 2012 or 2013
• We should experience an increase in new jobs during the first quarter 2009
• Interest rates should begin to increase in late spring or early summer

Her Recommendations

1. Refinance and lock in the historically low interest rates if you have not already done so.
2. Buy real estate now if you have not already done so.
3. Take care of your employees if you are an employer to make sure that you keep them later when jobs are more abundant.
4. Integrity is king today. We have seen too many sleezy things, many of which led to this downturn.

So, there you have it. We have certainly seen many signs that lead me to believe Dr. Reaser. I hope these comments help you get a handle on what you might want to consider doing.

The Reality of the California Real Estate Market: Siftings From the Tea Leaves of a Demographic Guru Webinar

Go To Webinar Registrations Are Required
Click here to register for this webinar on the California real estate market.

Confused About What To Do Next in Real Estate?
The "Great Recession" has left many of us scratching our heads and wondering what's next? Where do we go from here? How should we reposition our real estate portfolio going forward now that we are emerging from recession? Should I hang tight, or make an investment move now?

We realize these are confusing times, which is why Exeter 1031 Exchange Services, LLC is hosting this webinar for you. Our goal is to provide you with up-to-date real estate market data and information so that you can make better informed investment decisions.

"The Nation of California: An Almost Flat Line in 2009"
This exciting webinar will provide an update on the California real estate market and an overview of certain demographic trends that will affect investment property in the California real estate market. It will help you answer the above questions, and help you decide how to position your own investment portfolio as we move forward beyond the recession.

Hosted by:
William L. Exeter
President and Chief Executive Officer
Exeter 1031 Exchange Services, LLC

Presented by:
Alan N. Nevin
Director of Economic Research
MarketPointe Realty Advisors

Date and Time
December 1, 2009
8:55 AM PDT Login
9:00 AM — 10:00 AM PDT Webinar

Go To Webinar Registrations Are Required
Click here to register for this webinar about demographic trends in California.

Fannie Mae Housing Forecast for 2010

Fannie Mae's housing forecast projected New and Existing Home Sales will be UP 11% next year, with prices flat but stable nationally.

2010: Existing Home Sales Up 10%; New Home Sales Up 24%
They see Existing Home Sales UP 10% (5.46 million), and New Home Sales UP a whopping 24% (498,000) for 2010. The report unequivocally states:

It appears that the economic recovery is here.

In fact, the 23.3% boost in the annualized rate of home sales in Q3 was the largest in over twenty years. The analysis also noted that new-home inventories have dropped steadily since May 2007 and are now at their lowest levels since 1982.

More Good Economic & Market News

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Rose to Best Level Since August 2008
The ISM Non-Manufacturing index rose to a better-than-forecast 50.9 in September from 48.4 in the previous month. This is the first time since August of 2008 that the index moved above 50, which is the level that separates growth (greater than 50) from contraction (less than 50). Indexes of orders and business activity advanced the most. While the employment index edged up modestly, it continues to remain at a level indicating contraction (44.3).

Employment Claims Improve
Latest claims data swung back toward modest improvement with both claims figures at new lows since the cyclical peak earlier this year. Initial Jobless claims fell 33k to 521k while continuing claims fell 72k to 6.04mm. It is likely that the continued downward drift in continuing claims represents exhaustions of eligibility for regular benefits rather than actual rehiring. Additionally, given the volatility of the data, we look for continued declines rather than reading too much into one week.

Trade Deficit Narrows
The trade deficit narrowed in August by $1.2bn to -$30.7bn, contrary to expectations of a modest further widening. Exports inched up 0.2% following three months of increases averaging 2% per month. Imports swung to -0.6% in August following large increases in June and July, with imports of crude oil being the primary driver on both sides of this swing. In real terms, the deficit narrowed by $1bn. This reduces, but does not eliminate, the likelihood of a trade drag on Q3 GDP growth.

More Signs that Economy is Rebounding

Continuing Improvement in Current Economic & Market News

Retail sales increased 2.7% (-5.9% yoy) in August. Ex-autos, sales were firmer than expected, rising 1.1% (-7.0% yoy). This reading introduces additional upside risks to Q3 GDP growth.

Gasoline prices pushed the PPI up sharply in August by 1.7% (-4.3% yoy), while Core PPI rose 0.2% (+2.3% yoy). The core index was a bit stickier than we forecasted, with prices of new cars and trucks contributing to the upside surprise.

CPI in August rose 0.45% (-1.5% yoy) while core CPI rose 0.07% (+1.4% yoy). The firmer-than-expected readings resulted from the treatment of the cash for clunkers rebates, which were not considered a discount as we had expected. Inflation pressures of other components remain muted,
consistent with tame and abating inflation.

Industrial production jumped 0.8% in August (-10.7% yoy) after a large upward revision for July. The strong back-to-back increases strengthen the likelihood that the NBER will mark the trough of the recession in June. Capacity utilization increased to 69.6% in August. Although still below post WWII standards, we believe the higher than expected increase speaks to the strength of the unfolding rebound.

Housing starts moved up 1.5% in August (-29.6% yoy), as a 25% gain in multifamily starts overwhelmed a 3% drop in single family starts. The setback in single family starts follows five
months of gains of nearly 40%.

More Good Economic & Market News

The Federal Reserve Beige Book showed continued stabilization in economic activity with most Federal Reserve district banks reporting that business contacts “remained cautiously positive”.

Notable points included:

1) Tepid consumer activity aside from vehicle sales increases related to the cash-for-clunkers program; and
2) slight improvement in residential real estate but soft commercial real estate demand; and
3) improvement in manufacturing activity, and 4) labor market weakness. Commentary on inflation suggested downside risks remain in the near-term.

The US trade balance widened substantially to negative $32.0bn in July 2009 from negative $27.3bn in June 2009 on a surge in import growth, offsetting what had been emerging upside risks in our Q3 GDP growth forecast. A wider deficit in vehicles accounted for $1bn of the overall move. Import growth was broad-based with capital goods, consumer goods, and industrial supplies rising.

Initial jobless claims fell to 550k, down from 576k the prior week. Continuing claims fell more sharply to 6.088 million, although this may be due to expiring benefits.

Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose 4.5 points to 70.2 with gains split evenly between expectations and the assessment of current conditions. The report signals some recovery in consumer expectations, which have been under pressure due to job losses.

More Good Economic & Market News

Nonfarm productivity surged 6.4% in Q2 while prior quarters were revised down. The surge is typical at a time when the economy is turning from recession to recovery.

The trade balance widened $1bn in June to -$27.0bn, with both exports and imports rising in the month. However, in real terms the deficit narrowed slightly.

As expected, the FOMC left short rates unchanged, noting modest economic improvement. The committee continues to expect a sluggish recovery and subdued inflation.

Retail sales disappointed in July, in both headline (-0.1%) and ex autos (-0.6%). Away from autos, which likely benefitted from the cash for clunkers program, weakness was fairly widespread. Coupled with modest revisions to May and June figures, the drop in July adds to signs that GDP in Q2 could be
revised lower than the -1.0% on record.

July Consumer Prices remained muted, rising only 0.005% (-2.1% yoy). The cash for clunkers program had no visible impact on new car prices which rose another 0.5%. Firmer than expected apparel prices helped to push Core CPI up 0.09%.

Industrial production rose 0.5% in July (-13.1% yoy). However, the increase was heavily skewed towards auto output which drove the manufacturing sector higher 1.0%.

Capacity utilization improved to 68.5% from 68.1% in June.

Economic Outlook

The Economic Outlook
The following economic outlook comments come from our friends at Goldman Sachs & Co. There continues to be positive trends in many areas.

Better News Drives Up Near-term GDP
Improved news flow in homebuilding, home prices, manufacturing, and employment contribute to an upgrade in our second half 2009 GDP forecast from 1.0% to 3.0% annualized. This change is particularly warranted due to the economic jolt coming from the positive turn in the inventory cycle and fiscal stimulus.

Remaining Headwinds Keep Longer-term Views in Check
The factors driving the near-term rebound are inevitably transitory. Persistent headwinds remain, as 1) consumers continue deleveraging from damaged balance sheets, 2) weak employment weighs on household income, 3) state and local governments cut back, 4) commercial real estate price declines accelerate, and 5) credit availability remains impaired.

Unemployment
The July labor report was the clearest recent sign of economic stabilization as payroll losses posted their smallest decline (-247K) since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and the unemployment rate fell for the first time since April 2008 (9.5% to 9.4%). We have tempered our view slightly on labor, now expecting the unemployment rate to reach 10¼% in 2010, down from our previous forecast of 10½%.

Fed Policy
Monetary tightening seems highly unlikely in a world of vast labor and manufacturing slack, contained inflation, and subdued consumption. We think the FOMC will be reluctant to raise the funds target, even from zero, until they have some confidence that the unemployment rate has reached its cyclical peak or will do shortly.

Treasury Yields
The recent sell off seems to have gone too far in response to improving economic data. In our view, the 10-yr will migrate closer to 3% over the next few months.

More Good Economic News: ISM Manufacturing Index Jumped in July

This is an economic update provided by our friends at Goldman Sachs & Co.

Economic & Market News
ISM Manufacturing jumped to 48.9 in July and nearly every component showed a meaningful rise. An increase in the inventories index suggests moderation in the deep rate of liquidation (a positive for GDP), but at 33.5 remains depressed.

Construction spending rose 0.3% in June (-10.2% yoy). The composition of the report was as we hoped - more residential (+0.7%), less private non-residential (-0.5%), and some evidence of public spending (+4.6%).

Personal income fell 1.3% in June (-3.4% yoy), driven by removal of one-time stimulus payments of $250 paid to retirees in May plus a drop in wages, salaries, and dividends. Personal spending rose 0.4% (-2.2% yoy) but edged lower in real terms. As income fell more than spending, the savings rate fell to 4.6% from 6.2%.

ISM Nonmanufacturing fell to 46.4 in July indicating ongoing contraction outside of manufacturing.

The labor market had one of its most positive readings in nearly a year. Nonfarm Payrolls fell 247k in July, the smallest decline since July 2008, and figures for prior months were revised up modestly. The 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate, to 9.4%, can be attributed primarily to large declines in labor force participation in June and July rather than meaningful improvement in the rate. Other positive signs include increases in the workweek and average hourly earnings.